I'm usually a glass is half full type of guy, but when it comes to the NBA and the Bucks getting the number one pick in the 2014 Draft the glass is EMPTY and there is dust on the bottom.
There are two main reasons the Bucks WILL NOT receive the first pick in the Draft after the "lottery" balls are chosen Tuesday evening. The first is quite simple, the odds are against it. Even though the Bucks had the worst record in the NBA last season at 15-67, giving them the most ping pong balls in the lottery and a 25% chance at the number one pick, history probably won't let it happen. In the 24 years since (1990) the NBA has gone to the weighted lottery system ONLY three times has the most warranted team, with the worst record been awarded the number one pick via the lottery. (Nets 1990, Cavaliers 2003, and Magic 2004).
The Bucks were a prime example of the probability gods when they upset the odds and went to the top of the Draft Board with only a 6.3% chance in 2005 and chose Andrew Bogut number one.
Now for the second, and most conspiracy laden reason: it's RIGGED! The NBA will NOT let the Bucks succeed, period, end of story, and receiving the number one pick could put the Bucks back on track. Milwaukee is one of the smallest markets in the NBA, and the NBA wants to make money so the "Number One" pick needs to go to a big market, or a perennial winner...hmmm... maybe the Lakers, or Boston, or maybe even Philly....just NOT the Bucks...does the 2001 Eastern Conference Finals ring any conspiracy bells?.
Think about it for a minute, in this day and age of "reality tv" why wouldn't the ping pong ball drawing be LIVE in front of a camera instead of behind closed doors? Megabucks, and other lottery games have their numbers picked in front of the camera...how is this ANY different?!
Granted the Bucks can get no lower than the 4th pick, which is still good, but consolation none the less. The way I see it going to go down is the following: with a 19.9% probability and the second most ping balls the Philadelphia 76ers will get the first pick, followed by the Los Angeles Lakers with 6.3% chance (the same percentage the Bucks had in '05), then finally our beloved Bucks with 25% and best odds for the first pick. Also don't be surprised if Boston and NOT L.A. gets the second pick, they're the other team that the NBA NEEDS to do well, and their probability is a little better with 10.3% (it would look more realistic).
If that turns out to be the case and the Bucks get the 3rd or 4th pick, they need to "cash in" there second round picks to whatever other team is inside the top ten and pick up Doug McDermott out of Creighton. McDermott can not only score from beyond the arc like it's going out of style, his play will generate bigger crowds at home games...and more importantly help the Bucks WIN!
The Bucks are going to be bad again next year, that's a fact, so they should still be in the lottery next year and get another top ten player. That would make three top tens in 2 years, and then the Bucks will once again truly be "Green and Growing."